Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.