🔗 Share this article Dutch Polls: Major Parties and Main Issues in Early Election Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in recent memory with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during early general elections scheduled for October 29. The Situation and Its Significance Early legislative elections were triggered after the breakdown of the outgoing government in the summer, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance. Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks established a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD. However, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too controversial for the premier position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has lived under police protection for two decades, began sniping from outside government. He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a radical comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, rejecting all refugee applicants, shutting down refugee hostels and sending home all Syrian refugees. Although support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, main Dutch political parties have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders. At least 16 parties are forecast to gain representation, but no single party is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, typically an significant force on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after alliance talks that could last months. Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment There are 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century. Representatives are chosen every four years – sooner when administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any party that secures 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat. Similar to much of Europe, Dutch politics have been characterized in recent decades by a sharp decline in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now. In the Netherlands, this trend has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport. Key Players and Main Issues Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on asylum, Ukrainian men to be returned, the army to fight "urban violence", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools. Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll. Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates. GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to win a similar number, according to polling averages. Led by the seasoned ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its platform. Three other parties look likely to be important players in the next legislature. The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a platform centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients. The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is forecast to slump to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its head, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decline. It is proposing business tax cuts and reduced social benefits. The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats. Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the unsuccessful previous government, the BBB and NSC, are projected to decline, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament. The primary concerns currently have been immigration, with several – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the chronic Netherlands issue of accommodation (the country is short of 400,000 homes). Potential New Government Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what coalitions are actually possible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government). After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the government program. This often requires months. Various combinations look plausible, typically including a mix of political groups from moderate left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and several minor groups potentially including the conservative party.